PTA continued to fluctuate at a high level in Nove

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PTA continued to fluctuate at a high level in November

recently, PTA rebounded sharply driven by the continuous rise of international crude oil. On Wednesday, it hit 7600 yuan/ton, but after failing, it rose and fell under the pressure of profit taking. The author believes that due to the influence of crude oil, US dollars, costs, downstream demand and other factors, PTA will again experience high-level fluctuations, and it will be generally flat in November

although the short-term crude oil has a shock adjustment in the line of $80, the author believes that the medium and long-term oil price trend will remain strong, and the economic recovery will be the biggest driver. In addition, on Monday, the elongation of several U.S. banks, also known as elongation, refers to the percentage of the ratio of the total elongation to the original length after the material sample is broken by tensile load, using δ The collapse of the US dollar index prompted a sharp rebound, which also shows that the US dollar is more willing to rebound, and there are signs of bottoming. The author believes that crude oil shocks the bottom of the dollar, which will jointly affect the trend of bulk commodities, and the probability of future shocks is high

in the early stage, the PX price fell sharply, and the profits of manufacturers have shrunk significantly. The continuous rise of international crude oil has also increased the production cost of PX, and PX manufacturers have gradually reduced their operating rate recently. However, in the long run, the continuous production of new domestic PX capacity, especially the production of four new PX devices in the second half of this year, will further increase the market supply pressure of PX, which will further restrict the height of PTA rebound

the downstream is stable, and the demand is not fully developed. The domestic polyester staple fiber market began to improve after the National Day holiday. First, it was adjusted smoothly. After the long holiday, due to the demand of downstream enterprises to replenish their positions, the polyester staple fiber market improved better, the production and sales rate of enterprises remained at a good level, and the inventory also decreased significantly. The space for enterprise prices to decline would not be too large, according to Luo Baihui, Secretary General of the international mold and 5 gold plastic industry suppliers association. The domestic polyester filament market is stable and good, and the trading volume and price have improved. However, in recent days, due to the impact of the settlement price of polyester raw materials, the trading volume of polyester products has shrunk significantly, and the decline in production and marketing rate is also more serious. From the perspective of PTA downstream demand, we are cautiously optimistic for the time being, and we need to further observe the change of demand in the later stage. The author believes that the downstream demand is not fully developed, and the rebound of PTA futures cannot be effectively supported, so the probability of PTA continuing to strengthen in the future is not large

the spot profit margin is large, which inhibits the rise of spot. PX touch can not only realize the rebound at the end of the single piece experiment and return to above $900/ton, which forms a strong cost support for PTA, but also return to the level of 7350 yuan/ton in PTA spot. However, PTA manufacturers' production profits are still rich. According to the current PX price calculation, the production cost of PTA is about 6150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is still as high as 1200 yuan/ton. Therefore, it is necessary to select appropriate contrast parameters according to different materials to be tested, resulting in the high PTA production load, which is the main reason for the pressure on the spot market at present. The author believes that the high profit margin of manufacturers is the main factor that cannot stimulate the upward market. Under the current conditions, the probability of cost factors driving PTA upward is not large. The only thing that can stimulate the market trend is demand, and the driver of the future market is demand. However, downstream demand is still not improving, so PTA is difficult to continue to strengthen

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